Deep Store

Valuation

Am I buying expensive or cheap?

Overall valuation

65/ 100Fair
lenses disagree

Mean of three camp scores. Each camp answers a different question and gets equal weight, so the composite can't be dominated by whichever camp has more tiles. Inputs use the last-30y percentile, not full history, to avoid comparing today's market to pre-1990 regimes.

Classic ratios

Rich
98/ 100

How rich vs. its own history — earnings, book, sales, GDP.

Median of SHILLER_CAPE, SP500_TOTAL_PAYOUT_YIELD, SP500_PB_RATIO, SP500_PS_RATIO, TOBINS_Q, BUFFETT_INDICATOR

Rate-adjusted

Fair
76/ 100

Equity yield vs. bond yield, two ways: ECY (uses earnings yield) and the market-implied ERP (uses analyst-growth-derived required return). Both monthly.

Median of EXCESS_CAPE_YIELD, IMPLIED_ERP

Growth-adjusted

Fair
22/ 100

Adjusted for earnings growth — additive (implied real return) and multiplicative (PEG).

Median of EARNINGS_YIELD_PLUS_GROWTH, CAPE_PEG

Classic ratios

How rich is the market vs. its own history?

SHILLER_CAPE

Long-term equity valuation (price ÷ 10-year avg real earnings)

Richlagging

38.94

2026-02-01 · Monthly

93th pctile30y+4.7% 1y

MAPE_RATIO

Margin-adjusted CAPE — penalises CAPE when corporate margins are cyclically high

Richlagging

63.96

2025-10-01 · Quarterly

100th pctile30y+4.8% 1y

SP500_PE_TTM

Trailing 12-month P/E — the canonical equity valuation ratio

Richlive

29.02

2026-04-01 · Monthly

83th pctile30y+18.2% 1y

SP500_FORWARD_PE

S&P 500 Forward 12-month P/E — price ÷ analyst-consensus next-12m EPS

Fairlive

21.37

2026-04-01 · Monthly

69th pctile-5.1% 1y

EARNINGS_YIELD

Inverse of P/E — equity earnings as a yield you can compare to bonds

Fairlive

4.17

2026-03-01 · Monthly

42th pctile30y+9.5% 1y

SP500_DIV_YIELD

S&P 500 dividend yield — the income side of equity returns

Richlive

1.16

2026-04-30 · Monthly

2th pctile30y-18.9% 1y

SP500_TOTAL_PAYOUT_YIELD

S&P 500 Total Payout Yield — dividends + buybacks ÷ price

Richlive

2.76

2026-05-01 · Monthly

2th pctile-17.2% 1y

SP500_PB_RATIO

S&P 500 price-to-book — equity price vs accounting equity

Richstale

5.39

2025-12-31 · Annual

98th pctile+8.0% 1y

SP500_PS_RATIO

S&P 500 price-to-sales — equity price vs aggregate revenue

Richstale

3.35

2025-12-31 · Annual

98th pctile+12.4% 1y

TOBINS_Q

Tobin's Q — market value of equities ÷ replacement cost of corporate net worth

Richlagging

2.42

2025-10-01 · Quarterly

100th pctile30y+4.3% 1y

BUFFETT_INDICATOR

Total US corporate equity market cap ÷ GDP — Buffett's 'best single measure'

Richlagging

232.74

2025-10-01 · Quarterly

100th pctile30y+10.6% 1y

Rate-adjusted?

Does it still look rich after accounting for the discount rate?

Growth-adjusted?

Does it still look rich after accounting for earnings growth?