Deep Store

Aggregate dividends paid by S&P 500 companies divided by the index level, expressed as a percentage. Scraped from Multpl monthly.

Why it matters: Dividend yield is the most straightforward "what does this asset pay you" measure for equities — directly comparable to bond yields (it's the equity version of a coupon). Also one of the longest continuous datasets in markets (Multpl's series goes back to 1871). For long-term investors, the starting dividend yield has historically explained a meaningful chunk of forward-decade real returns.

How to read it: Long-run average is around 4%, but the structural decline since the 1980s (more buybacks, fewer dividends) has shifted the modern range to roughly 1.2-2.5%. Sub-1.5% is historically low; above 3% is elevated. Compare to the 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10) — when the dividend yield exceeds the 10Y (rare in the modern era), equities are paying you more income than risk-free bonds, which has historically been a meaningful buy signal (March 2009 was the most recent occurrence).

Caveats: The post-1990 era has used buybacks as a substitute for dividends, so headline yield understates total cash returned to shareholders. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) would be a more complete picture but isn't easily available as a standalone series. Don't compare today's dividend yield to 1950s-era yields without that caveat in mind.