CAPE_PEG
Growth-adjusted CAPE — multiple per point of trailing real growth
Latest value
5.0200
as of 2025-12-01
All-time percentile
47th
1-year change
-42.3%
Time series
Showing 19 of 19 data points
About this series
A PEG-style growth-adjusted valuation: `CAPE / 10-year trailing real EPS growth %`. Reads as "how many CAPE multiple points are you paying per percentage point of historical real earnings growth?". Lower is cheaper given growth; higher is expensive given growth.
Why it matters: Plain PEG ratios (P/E ÷ growth) are well-known but use trailing-twelve-month earnings, which are noisy. Substituting CAPE for the P/E gives you the same growth-adjusted lens but with a denominator smoothed across a full earnings cycle. It's the cleanest single-number answer to "is CAPE expensive *given* how earnings have been growing?".
How to read it: No canonical reference range — read it relative to its own history. Sustained low readings (e.g. 5-7) appear in regimes where CAPE is reasonable *and* growth is healthy (1990s, parts of the 2010s). Sustained high readings (15+) mark eras where valuation has run ahead of growth — late stages of bull markets. Compare with raw CAPE: if CAPE looks expensive but PEG looks normal, growth is doing the work; if both are stretched, the late-cycle warning is unambiguous.
Caveats: PEG-style ratios are mathematically unstable when growth approaches zero — values blow up and become meaningless. We skip months where trailing 10-year real EPS growth is below 0.5%, which leaves visible gaps in 1939, 1949, and 2009 (epochs where the metric is genuinely undefined, not where data is missing). Don't read those gaps as bullish or bearish — they're a sign that PEG is the wrong lens for that specific regime.