AAII_BULLISH
Retail bullish sentiment — weekly AAII survey
Official name: AAII Bullish %
Latest value
35.7466
as of 2026-04-09
All-time percentile
44th
1-year change
+64.3%
Time series
Showing 260 of 260 data points
About this series
Percentage of respondents to the weekly AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) survey who are bullish on the stock market over the next 6 months. The survey has been running since 1987.
Why it matters: AAII is a classic contrarian indicator. Historically, extreme readings in either direction have preceded counter-moves in equities — when retail is euphoric, the market tends to disappoint; when retail is despondent, it tends to rally. It's one of the oldest, most-cited sentiment datasets in finance.
How to read it: Historical average bullishness is about 38%. Readings above 50% are "excess optimism"; below 25% are "excess pessimism." The bull-bear spread (bullish % minus bearish %) is often used as a cleaner signal than the bullish reading alone. Bullish extremes alone are not market timing signals — use them as one input among several.
Caveats: Retail sentiment has been less reliable since the rise of commission-free trading and social-media investing — old extreme-reading historical relationships may have weakened.