T10YIE
Market's implied average inflation over the next 10 years
Official name: 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
Latest value
2.3600
as of 2026-04-10
All-time percentile
74th
1-year change
+7.8%
Time series
Showing 625 of 1 249 data points
About this series
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate — computed as the difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the 10-year TIPS (inflation-protected) yield. It represents the average CPI inflation rate over the next decade at which an investor would be indifferent between holding nominals and TIPS.
Why it matters: This is one of the cleanest real-time readouts of market-implied inflation expectations. When it rises, the market is pricing in more inflation; when it falls, less. It's more forward-looking than reported CPI (which tells you what already happened) and more credible than survey measures (which lag and have known biases).
How to read it: The Fed's inflation target is 2%. Readings around 2-2.5% are consistent with target; much higher suggests the market doubts the Fed's ability to control inflation; much lower suggests deflationary worries. It's usually between 1.5% and 3% in normal times.
Caveats: Breakevens include an inflation risk premium — investors demand a bit extra for taking inflation risk in nominals, so breakevens slightly overstate "true" expected inflation. In stressed markets (like March 2020), TIPS liquidity issues can briefly distort the number in both directions.