PCEPILFE
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge (Core PCE)
Official name: Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index)
Latest value
128.8590
as of 2026-02-01
All-time percentile
100th
1-year change
+3.0%
Time series
Showing 58 of 58 data points
About this series
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy. Released monthly by the BEA. This is what the Fed actually targets when it says "2% inflation" — not CPI.
Why it matters: The Fed uses core PCE instead of core CPI because it (a) updates weights more often, reflecting actual consumer substitution, (b) has broader coverage, and (c) is generally less volatile. When the Fed talks about inflation progress, this is the series they mean. Watch it for "is inflation heading back to 2%."
How to read it: This series is the index level (e.g., 128.86). For the year-over-year rate, compute the 12-month percent change — that's what everyone quotes. Levels near 2% YoY = on target; 3%+ = Fed will stay tight; sub-2% = potential easing.
Caveats: Monthly release with a ~1-month lag (March data comes out late April). Occasionally revised in subsequent releases.