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PCEPILFE

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge (Core PCE)

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Official name: Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index)

Frequency: MonthlyUnits: Index 2017=100806 observations

Latest value

128.8590

as of 2026-02-01

All-time percentile

100th

1-year change

+3.0%

all-time low: 15.50all-time high: 128.86

Time series

Showing 58 of 58 data points

About this series

Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy. Released monthly by the BEA. This is what the Fed actually targets when it says "2% inflation" — not CPI.

Why it matters: The Fed uses core PCE instead of core CPI because it (a) updates weights more often, reflecting actual consumer substitution, (b) has broader coverage, and (c) is generally less volatile. When the Fed talks about inflation progress, this is the series they mean. Watch it for "is inflation heading back to 2%."

How to read it: This series is the index level (e.g., 128.86). For the year-over-year rate, compute the 12-month percent change — that's what everyone quotes. Levels near 2% YoY = on target; 3%+ = Fed will stay tight; sub-2% = potential easing.

Caveats: Monthly release with a ~1-month lag (March data comes out late April). Occasionally revised in subsequent releases.