YIELD_CURVE_10Y_2Y
10Y–2Y Treasury spread — the classic recession indicator
Official name: Yield Curve Slope (10Y - 2Y)
Latest value
0.5100
as of 2026-04-09
All-time percentile
40th
1-year change
+18.6%
Time series
Showing 624 of 1 248 data points
About this series
The spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields (DGS10 minus DGS2). Positive values are normal: long-term rates exceed short-term. Negative values ("inversion") are unusual and historically significant.
Why it matters: Yield curve inversions — when 2Y exceeds 10Y and the spread goes negative — have preceded every US recession since the 1950s, usually by 6 to 24 months. It's one of the most reliable leading indicators in macro, with few false positives. When the curve is deeply positive, markets expect growth and normal Fed transmission; when it inverts, they're pricing Fed cuts (i.e. expecting a downturn the Fed will have to respond to).
How to read it: Zero is the inversion line. Above zero = normal; below zero = inverted. The depth and duration of inversion matter: brief shallow inversions (–10 bps for a few weeks) are weaker signals than deep sustained ones (–50 bps for months). Historical warnings have come from periods where the spread spent 6+ months below zero.
Caveats: Inversion doesn't give a precise timing — the lag to recession has varied from 6 to 24 months. Also, un-inversion (the curve steepening back into positive territory) has often happened right before the recession actually starts. Don't take a return to positive as an all-clear.