DGS2
2-year Treasury yield — short-end of the curve
Official name: Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis
Latest value
3.7800
as of 2026-04-09
All-time percentile
39th
1-year change
-3.3%
Time series
Showing 624 of 1 248 data points
About this series
The yield on a 2-year US Treasury note. The 2Y is the most policy-sensitive point on the yield curve — it tracks market expectations for the Fed funds rate over the next ~2 years.
Why it matters: The 2Y-10Y spread (DGS10 minus DGS2) is one of the most reliable recession indicators in US economic history. Every US recession since the 1950s has been preceded by an inversion (2Y above 10Y), usually 6-24 months in advance. The 2Y on its own shows what the market thinks the Fed will do: rising 2Y = expecting hikes; falling 2Y = expecting cuts.
How to read it: Compare against DFF. When 2Y is well above DFF, market expects hikes. When 2Y is well below DFF, market expects cuts (often a recession call). The gap between 2Y and 10Y (the curve slope) is the headline recession signal.
Caveats: Inversions don't tell you *when* a recession starts — only that one is likely within a couple of years. They also don't work reliably in all regimes; quantitative easing has been argued to distort curve signals post-2009.